How much does negotiating move the price?

We compared the valuation of each deal with the first offer the founder received, in 140 deals where both are known. In 51% the deal closed more than 1% above the first offer. In 11% it closed below it. The median change was 9% (the median is the middle value: half the deals are above it, half below).

In the 106 deals that closed after a counter-offer, the median valuation was 17% above the first offer. In the 34 deals where the founder accepted an offer as it stood, the median change was 0%.

This is a correlation, not proof. Founders counter when the first offer leaves room, and pitches where a counter ended the talks are not in these deals. Still, the first offer was often not the last one.